Leading blockchain intelligence firm Chainalysis has found that the COVID-nineteen pandemic and global economical wrinkle is affecting Bitcoin (BTC) consumer habits in surprising means.

In a new report published on March thirty, Chainalysis details how Bitcoin spending trends in 3 areas — merchant services, gambling and darknet marketplaces — have inverse, or even reversed.

Weakening correlation could be a boon for Bitcoin merchant services, says written report

Chainalysis reported that one such change in trend shows resilience among Bitcoin merchant services in the current economic crunch.

For case, the business firm's data for Bitcoin spending using merchant services from July 2022 until March 9, 2022 reveals that there was a potent positive correlation betwixt price and expenditure: the more Bitcoin is worth, the more likely holders are to spend it.

Since the COVID-nineteen outbreak, this positive correlation has weakened past roughly half, and the full value of expenditure has declined.

While this indicates that Bitcoin holders are indeed spending less during Bitcoin'south contempo decline in value, this decrease is less dramatic than might otherwise have been expected. This is considering since the outbreak, the forcefulness of the correlation between price and behavior has itself likewise weakened.

Then while Bitcoin's turn down in price does continue to pb to reduced spending — information technology does not do and so as significantly as it would accept done in pre-pandemic times. A weakened correlation means that the toll does is non dictating consumer beliefs as strongly as before.

Bitcoin usage, 7 July 2022— 27 March 2022

Bitcoin usage, 7 July 2022— 27 March 2022. Source: Chainalysis blog

Darknet marketplaces take a hit

Most conspicuous of all is the modify in user beliefs on darknet marketplaces, which normally has only a weak negative correlation to Bitcoin's price. Since the outbreak, withal, this correlation has reversed and strengthened — leading to a significant decrease in darknet market acquirement.

Chainalysis points to possible external factors to explain this trend, noting that illicit substances such as recreational drugs may be harder to come by due to the impact of disrupted supply chains worldwide:

"Contempo reports betoken out that Mexican drug cartels are having a harder time sourcing fentanyl, equally China's Hubei province — a hub of the global fentanyl trade — has been hitting hard as the epicenter of the outbreak. Such disruptions [...] could be hampering darknet market vendors' ability to do business organization."

With gambling, its marginally positive correlation to Bitcoin toll has corrected to zero since early March 2022 (i.e. no relationship), signaling that there appears to be no discernable impact of the pandemic on gamblers' behavior.

Chainalysis closes its report noting that with China'southward gradual comeback from the domestic COVID-19 crisis, darknet activity at present appears to exist seeing a gradual recovery there.

In January 2022, a Chainalysis report revealed that the volume of cryptocurrency flows on darknet markets had doubled in 2022 for the first fourth dimension in iv years.